The India - US Nuclear Deal Saga

Quite recently we saw the topsy-turvy Trust vote happening, which was viewed by a lot of people worldwide to decide the fate of the N-deal between India and The United States, from India’s end, and now with that settled from one end, we would probably see the deal go thru smoothly. But after all this hype, few people know what exact variables would this deal affect and so here’s a bit of insight on the background and after-effects of this deal.

The History – Why was this deal needed?

The history unfolds with the fact that in 1970-78 when US sponsored NPT (Nuclear Proliferation Treaty) and its subsequent laws, they set a date of 1967 as criteria for inclusion in the select group. France and China were gleeful; as they had exploded their bomb before the reference date, and hence found their berth in this group automatically. Since India had done the tests in 1974, India was punished and hence excluded from the list. For decades India has been subjected to tough sanctions, and it has endured its exclusion for not signing the NPT and was barred from any civilian use nuclear technology and materials. This had also led to another bomb testing in 1998 and more sanctions and a lot of other after effects.

But with the phenomenal growth and development that the country has achieved over the years, and considering the fact that India has guarded its nuclear technology safely, the Bush administration feels that to exclude India with over a fifth of human population, just due to a bomb test decades ago was a mistake. So they are willing to go ahead with the deal, giving India an exemption from the NPT (Nuclear Proliferation Treaty), and providing India with the required Civilian Nuclear fuel and technology, amending Section 123 of Atomic act in the United States legislation.

The US Side of the Bill Passing:

Ever since 2005, when the deal was first brought up, the US congress has had a lot of pain it getting it passed. The lobbyists and politicians look into this exemption as a breach to the NPT and hence were trying to oppose the deal. But with the full backing of the Bush Administration and the efforts of able Secretary of the State, Condi Rice, the Henry J. Hyde US-India Peaceful Atomic Energy Cooperation Act of 2006 was ratified by both houses of Congress and signed into law by President Bush in December 2006.


The Indian Side of the Bill Passing:

Like in the US, the Indian government had a hard time getting the bill passed as well. The Congress failed to get support from its biggest ally “Left-parties” and so the deal got postponed for almost 2 years, with the government trying its best to convince the other parties “For the Deal”. Even the opposition parties, though not against the deal, did not provide the UPA government with the support it needed.

Finally in mid-2008, PM Manmohan Singh put his foot down and said, Congress will go ahead with the deal even if others are against it. This was followed by a dramatic trust-vote, which the government won, thanks to support from Amar Singh and Samajwadi Party, who replaced the Left and led the trust vote to victory with 275-254, thus the Indian Government will get the required support and the things will start rolling.

Benefits of the deal to the United States:

A lot of critics of the deal said that the United States proposed for this deal not for India’s good, but for its own good. While I am not sure if it harms India, all I want to say is, whenever any country proposes a new deal, it would look for its own benefits, or the share of the pie that it will get and there is nothing wrong with that thinking, as long as the other party is not pressurized into agreement.

1. Economic Benefits to the US
   India is one of the fastest growing economies in the world today. With the nuclear deal done, India is planning to open around 10 big nuclear power plants in the next 15 years or so. Considering that each plant is worth $ 4 bn, and half the orders and technology go to the US, we are talking of an investment to the tune of around $30 bn.
   This will also set the right tune for the lot of other Indian industries which are closely woven with the US companies and ensure that the extra goodwill will improve the trade ties between the countries.
2. Political Benefits to the US
   The United States has been perceived with a bully image in the world today in a lot of Asian countries, but India is looked upon as a “peacemaker” third world country. This deal will make Indian foreign policy aligned to the United States and give the US a little say in countries like Iran with which India is on good terms. Another unstated benefit for US appears to be their assessment that, with an unstable Pakistan, a fast developing India could be a counter weight to a “rising China” in the region.

Benefits of the deal to India:

Just like the benefits to the United States are not limited to one domain, there are a lot of benefits to India from this deal, some which are directly visible, the others need to be read between the lines.

1. Economic Benefits to India
   The Indian economy will also be benefited drastically due to this deal. Most of our nuclear power plants are working at half-capacity or below because of the shortage of fuel. This deal will ensure that the fuel shortage is solved for the good.
   Apart from this, being closely aligned to the United States has its own benefits in terms of higher Foreign Direct Investment and Technological know-how which will improve India’s progress by leaps and bounds.
2. Political Benefits to India:
   The stripping off of the sanctions will make India have a better position in the International Organizations around the globe. A closer tie-up with the United States will make India’s presence in the United Nations feel stronger. Like Bush and McCain, the United Nations will also support India’s entry into the larger G-8. The Indo – US Nuclear deal is in fact dumping the past, when people took India for granted and unlocking the hidden potential of the future.
3. Military Benefits to India:
   This deal will also open the United States as a new supplier of arms to India and reduce our dependence on Russia. With the war-against-Terror still going on, the deal would also ensure that the United States would help reduce terrorism in India, and the new alliance of India with the US might also pressurize Pakistan to change their policies with India.

The After-math of the Saga as per the critics:

• There is a lot of criticism on the point that, India is supposed to have 22 Nuclear facilities of which it has declared that 14 are civilian and hence will be under the surveillance of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), but the critics say that providing fuel to these 14 facilities will make the making of Nuclear weapons at other facilities easier.
• The deal also allows the United States to cut the flow of fuel in case India does any more nuclear tests, which might make it a sitting duck for sometime if the neighboring countries like Pakistan and China do some tests.
• The deal also refuses the use of reprocessing technology, and hence India which has ample Thorium, cannot use it after reprocessing and will have to use the Uranium fuel which it can import from the United States due to this deal.
• The other issue is that American domestic law (Hyde Act) Section 102 part 6 (a) states: "The country has a functioning and uninterrupted democratic system of government, has a foreign policy that is congruent to that of America." Thus, this deal will make our foreign policy congruent to the United States policy, which may not be completely true, like India does not support imperialistic attacks as made on Afghanistan or Iraq.

The Final Word:

Like any deal, there are various pros and cons of this deal as well and the things may not be as rosy as they appear. But all said and done, though the deal contains many loopholes when it comes to national security, at the same time helps to satisfy India’s growing need for power, which is absolutely necessary for the growth and further development.

As is known, History is laden with roads not taken, and so, ten years from now when electricity supply situation in India’s households, industry and farms is significantly better, we will have to thank both George Bush and Manmohan Singh.
Thanks to the deal, India will not be struck with in one sided, Iran - Pakistan - India pipeline deal, which would have held India permanently hostage to Pakistan.

Ancient Visitors - An explanation of Extra-terrestrial existance?

I wrote this for an ISRO essay competition. The material is all obtained from the World-wide-web, but the sources are pretty trustworthy.

Have ETs been visiting the earth for millions of years?

Did our distant ancestors witness UFOs?

Well, according to some serious UFO researchers there is plenty of evidence to suggest so. Figures of ‘Space people’ and UFOs, they say, are depicted in ancient cave drawings and can be found on age-old pottery. Furthermore, they claim many myths and legends, and even the Bible and other sacred texts from around the world, contain corroborative evidence for such a startling theory. Have extraterrestrials been visiting the earth since ancient times?

Well, according to some serious UFO researchers there's a distinct possibility. And among corroborative evidence for this startling theory they cite ancient cave paintings, pottery, and sculpture; myths, legends, and even passages of the Bible and other religious texts. All we must do, they say, is stop treating these sacred writings and primitive art forms as made-up stories or nonsense, and start looking upon them as actual eye-witness accounts.

Is it not hard to to believe how the ancient people like The Eygptians, the Babylonians and the Mayans civilizations…all which existed at around the same period of time had independently without having known of the other’s existence due to the large distances between them which are believed to be impossible for people of that era to cross make SIMILAR TYPE OF HUGE PYRAMIDAL STRUCTURES… Also even if they had trade or other contacts…it is hard to build such huge architectural structures even with the modern day technology…leave alone them to be built by only human strength…

Also the ancient Chinese people made huge temples during that time and it is now found by some of the scientists that the temples are built in such locations that they look like a selected constellation as viewed at that time… Similarly the Pyramids also represent the same Constellation when seen from the sky and also the path inside the pyramids from the Pharaoh’s tomb to the window outside is designed like the same constellation with rooms representing each star…Does this mean that the structures are pointing towards some group of stars from which they have the relations…or in simple language they point to the constellation from which they came???
In According To The Evidence, Erich Von Daniken, a best-selling author and ancient ET visitation exponent, tells us about the Dogon, a primitive West African tribe now settled in Mali. Apparently for thousands of years the Dogon have been telling the same creation myth claiming that they originate from a distant planet. But even further to this, the myth they tell encompasses astonishingly accurate knowledge of a dim and heavy star called Sirius B, which, invisible to the naked eye, was not even discovered until the 1950s by astronomers using the most modern radio telescopes of the day! So how could the primitive Dogon have come by this and other such astonishing astronomical knowledge? Well, Von Daniken suggests that the only possible explanation is that the creation myth is based on fact and the Dogon really do have ET connections.
In Chariots Of The Gods, another of his books, Von Daniken turns his attention to the Bible. He urges us to re-examine many of its ‘stories’ in light of our modern experiences of the UFO phenomenon. In particular he draws our attention to the Old Testament Book of Eziekel. In this particular text the prophet gives a 6th century account of watching a ‘Flaming Chariot’ descend in the desert beside the River Chebar in Babylon. It was amber, says the prophet, the colour of metal and surrounded by fire infolding itself. Later, he described how four objects came out of the mysterious cloud, each a wheel within a wheel with a ring of eyes; and out of them came four man-like creatures in suits of burnished brass, with crystal firmaments on their heads.

According to some, Eziekel could well be describing a classic UFO/alien encounter. And to corroborate this theory even further, after reading about Eziekel’s ‘UFO encounter’ in Von Daniken’s book, a respected NASA engineer, Joseph Blumrich, was intrigued enough to study the account further. He was later quoted as saying that Eziekel’s UFOs had ‘…very credible dimensions and belong (s) to a stage of technology which modern man will not reach for some decades’!

And staying with the Bible, could even the angels have been ETs? It is said that they were ‘messengers’ of the Lord and came from the skies. UFOlogists remind us that Daniel called them ‘watchers’ and that it's written they were allowed to intermarry and eat human food. And what about Jacob's ladder? In his book In Search Of Extraterrestrials, Alan Landsburg reminds us of how Jacob ‘…began to dream, and look! There was a ladder stationed upon the earth and its top reaching up to the heavens; and look! There were God's angels ascending and descending on it.’ Is it possible Jacob saw ETs using some kind of early space age transportation to and from the earth? And what about that other Old Testament prophet, Elijah? When it says he was taken to heaven in a ‘fiery chariot’ perhaps, some say, this could be contemporary biblical jargon for him leaving earth in a UFO.

Researchers say ancient Indian Sanskrit texts, too, provide valuable evidence for the theory of age-old ET visitations to earth. Many classic Vedic and Hindu writings mention metallic flying machines called Vimanas. It is even claimed that an ancient text exists which details how to build these amazing craft and run pilot training courses! But how could such ancient people have come by the technology to have built any flying machine, never mind such advanced flying craft, you ask? Well, obviously only with the help of technologically superior beings from another world, say the advocates of ancient UFOs.

Cave drawings and primitive carvings from all around the world provide even further evidence, too, say researchers. In Lussac, France, for example, there are ancient wall drawings of figures dressed in what UFOlogists claim could certainly be modern day clothes. The startling drawings were found deep in dark caves. Many of the caves are underwater today, and the drawings are in such a position, it is a mystery to experts how on earth the artists’ even saw to mix their pigments and create the works.

But who were the models for these primitive painters? Who were these contemporarily dressed figures primitive people went through so much trouble to depict? Furthermore, how did they even see to paint the pictures? Did they use mirrors to reflect light back into the dark interiors of the caves? Or did they have more advanced technology?

Another such incident was found when paintings of people of a South American tribe were viewed…These paintings were very large and made on the flat ground…these paintings were made in such a way that the only possible way to view them is from the sky… So were these pictures made to attract or signal some Alien Ships or what?

There are also other drawings very similar to be found all over the world. In South Africa, for example, there is one such painting known as ‘The White Lady of Brandenberg’. This particular lady is depicted dressed in a short pullover, gloves, garters and slippers. Behind her is a male figure with some kind of pipe in his hand and wearing some kind of helmet. The UFOlogists maintain it is impossible for a primitive artist to foresee people wearing such items of clothing. So who were the models for such extraordinary works of ancient art?

According to UFOlogists there are endless examples of evidence of ancient ET visitation on primitive pottery, too. In Gold of the Gods, again by author Erich Von Daniken, there is a photograph of an old Mayan vase depicting what certainly looks like a female astronaut. The flying figure appears to be wearing some of the attributes of the profession- a broad belt around her stomach and a apparatus strapped to her back. Pottery festooned with similar ‘space- people’ exist ,too, on show, says the author, in museums in Turkey and Madrid.

So, did ETs visit the earth in ancient times? Are myths and legends eye-witness accounts of our ancestors encountering UFOs and beings from distant planets or are they simply fairy stories and not to be believed as truth? When we read of ‘angels’, ‘flaming chariots’ and ‘metallic flying machines’ in the Bible and other sacred scripts, what are we to make of it all? How are we to explain the primitive cave drawings, pottery and carvings, apparently depicting ancient space men and women? If primitive man was simply drawing his artistic inspiration from real life, who on earth were his models for such startling works of art?

Truth, someone once said a long time ago, is often stranger than fiction. If, like some of the evidence proposed by UFOlogists certainly seems to suggest, ancient man really was visited by beings from other planets, the old maxim would certainly prove to be extraordinarily wise and correct.

Global Oil Crisis – Who is to Blame?

As the title suggests, this blog is about the Global Oil Crunch and the rising prices of the crude oil barrels. Just a decade back, in 1999, the price of oil hovered around $16 a barrel. By 2008, it had crossed the $100 a barrel mark, almost reaching $150 mark before it consolidated again in the last few days. Something is going really wrong with the global oil market, The price of oil hit a record of $147.27 a barrel on Friday and has doubled in a year, sparking fuel protests worldwide and stoking inflation.

THE REASONS OF THE PING-PONG
Different people give different reasons, some are plausible, some are absurd. The normal economics shows the simple reason that price increases when SUPPLY is lesser than demand, and considering the fact that Global needs are growing, should suffice for an answer. But even the various Security Firms are divided on the exact reasons for the increase.

While Lehmann Brothers claims from the statistical data of BP, that global consumption increased by only 1.1% last year and it will only grow at 1.2% in 2009. This data matches the estimates of International Energy Agency (IEA), which represents 27 major oil-consuming nations around the world.

Ironically, the United States and the other so-called developed countries blamed India and China was surging demand and hence the increase in the global oil prices. On the same steps went a lot of International Institutions (most of them are headed by these countries anyways). The OPEC rejected this blame and explained that it was due to the speculators and the prices were hyped up, but it did not do much about it.

On OPEC’s part, the king of Saudi Arabia declared that Saudi Arabia was pumping at 9.7 million barrels per day in July, the fastest rate for 27 years an increase of 550,000 bpd from two months ago and he continued that despite the implementation by the kingdom and a number of producing nations of production capacity increases, we did not feel a response from the global oil market. Now it is true that the Crude Oil production had been hit in the last few years after Saddam’s regime ended, reducing Iraq’s exports from 2 million barrels per day to 1.4 million barrels per day. But still the production is not as reduced to have caused such a HUGE difference. The increased capacity from other countries has long filled that gap up. And OPEC officials have repeatedly blamed factors beyond their control such as speculation and the weak dollar for oil's rise. The OPEC also welcomed the increased demands from Asian countries and mentioned that "We welcome the demand from them (from India and China). We are ready to cooperate with them to fulfil their demand for oil. Let me say clearly, India and China are not responsible for rise in prices." But of course, they refused to revive the price-band system. For India and China, Indian Petroleum Minister Murli Deora set records straight and made a Forceful statement which says, “While China and India account for over one-third of the global population, their combined oil consumption is less than one-eighth of the world's consumption."

On the other hand, US Treasury secretary Henry Paulson defended the speculators, saying "all the evidence" pointed to tight supply and robust demand. Instability and uncertainty are other concerns, with insurgency and sabotage threatening the vast oilfields of Iraq and Nigeria, and doubts over the immediate future of Iran, the world's fourth-largest oil producer. Goldman Sachs echoed the same emotion and refused to put the blame on the speculators stating that Concerns that the gains in prices are part of a speculative bubble are "unwarranted".

THE REAL CULPRIT

The last few days have seen a decline in the market price of the crude oil, thus settling the debate once and for all about what was the real reason for the All-Time-High Oil prices.

Seemingly the statements from various authorities about US slowdown, which is more pressurized due to the fluctuations in oil prices and already slowed down Housing sector. The other visible thing is that the rise in the global world consumption is set to reduce due to the higher prices of crude oil. The effect was visible in the United States with 5% drop in demand of motor fuel.

The yo-yoing of the oil prices without any major change in the Global Oil Production System on the whole, i.e. no real things that can disrupt the global oil supply-demand shows that the factors affecting the All-Time-High Oil prices do not really seem to be the normal Supply-demand. Crude plunged $6.44 from the previous week's all-time-high closing of $147.27 on 15th July, and this is the steepest fall in a single day. The prices slid slowly after that. (Current prices visible on the chart on the top).

THE LAST WORD
Though the present price-boom was seemingly due to speculation and not a real Supply-Demand crunch, but the way the consumption of this non-renewable source of energy is growing, the day is not far, when the prices will be HIGH for REAL.

The aftereffects of the Crude oil price rise have been phenomenal, in many poor nations with oil, the proceeds are being lost to corruption, depriving these countries of their best hope for development. For example, India’s inflation rate went spiraling beyond 11%, which overshadows the development and progress made. A lot of agriculture industry, in various countries, depends a lot on petroleum products in farming, from petro-chemically made fertilizers, to tractors for ploughing and the harvesting. Transport industries have also been hit adversely. All said and done, in the end it is the COMMAN MAN who always suffers.

Probably the only solution to this problem is invent the elixir, which would help us create "liquid-gold”.

Few facts:

• The joke in the picture – The price of Gasoline (petrol) in the US is around $4, while Europe sells gasoline in liters and 1 gallon is around 3.78 liters.
• Petroleum is also called liquid gold and Elixir is like a Philosopher’s stone that converts other metals into gold.

God - The Greatest Engineer

This post is another of the poems I wrote during the Engineering days. I read an article on God's Engineering skills, and thought, as an Engineer, I should pay my tribute to Him.

This picture is for the "Divine Presence", which touches our life in ways, that cannot be described. We may call God, with different names, look up to Him in different forms, and probably pray to Him in different ways, but the "Divine Presence or Cosmic Energy" remains the same.

So, being an Engineer, and a part-time poet ;-), this is my way of offering "Homage".

God is the Greatest Engineer,
In every branch of any field;
Nothing made by man comes near,
To even the least of His Creation’s yield!

He is great in the CTM way; (CTM is Construction Technology and Methods)
We’ve built the hundreds storeys,
But higher stand His peaks away,
Which form the foundations of His Glory!

What better are Mechanical marvels seen!
Than the Sun Engine driving rain’s cycle,
Which is grander than the best machine
Or any land, water or air vehicle!

The thunder and the lightning prove,
That much more Electrical force,
Than flows from any man made groove,
Comes from the Almighty’s source!

To show that there is none to par,
In Electronics and Communication, the Lord,
Made most complex wires and bars
Which are the Nerves, of brain and spinal cord!

Though we make wonder drugs today,
And Chemicals that give comfort and bliss;
The tiny particles that lay,
The very Foundations to these are His!

God’s the Greatest Engineer,
But not for His scorching sun,
Mountains, Nerves or Pills! No, no my dear!
These don’t make Him the best one.

To establish, there’s none as great;
This I can say, and stay of worth,
He wrote the Software Code of Life,
On the Computer of the Earth!!!

P.S. The end is like this, because, I am a Computer Engineer. :-)

To All my Friends...!

This poem, though is dedicated to all my WONDERFUL Friends, I have a SPECIAL dedication on this one to Ashish Sharma (more popularly known as "Ashu" or "Sharma"). He is probably the guy who deserves it more than anyone else.

One more thing, this poem is not completely ORIGINAL, because it is BASED on the starting stanza that Ashish made. I added more lines and made it what it is. This also is among the few poems I wrote in Hindi (Thanks to Ashish to inspire me to write in Hindi). So, in case you do not like this one, you know who my Teacher was, don't you?

And one more thing, before you start,

I am pathetic at Hindi Jodni, so please forgive that part. I would need some help at correcting it as well. ;-)

शराबी नही हे हम,
पी लेंगे शराब फिर भी;
ऐ दोस्त तेरी यादों में,
जी लेंगे सारी जिन्दगी.

शिकायत हो कोई हमसे,
तो कर देना अभी,
उन गलतियों के समंदर में,
जी लेंगे सारी जिन्दगी.

रखना नही कोई शिकवा हमसे,
देते हे तुम्हे कसम अपनी,
तुम जैसे दोस्तों पर,
कुर्बान हे सारी जिन्दगी.

ये चंद दिनों के साथ को,
जीना हे इस कदर,
के लगे इन चार सालों में,
हम ने जिली सारी जिंदगी.

आ पहुंचे हे उस मकाम पर,
मुख्मोद लेंगे दिल तोड़ कर,
दर्द के दरियों में,
अब कैसी लगे गी जिंदगी?

हे फरियाद हमारी इतनी,
भूल न जन किसी मोड़ पर.
आपकी इन्ही यदून के भरोसे,
जिलेंगे साडी जिंदगी.

पानी हे मंजिल अब,
पर छोट न जाए साथ अब,
दोस्तों की बेफई के साथ,
मौत से भी बुरी लगेगी ये जिंदगी.

हे मेरी ये कमाना, मिलेंगे किसी मोड़ पर,
फिरसे करेंगे लडाई और जगदे,
बंटके हसी और खशी,
जी लेंगे ये जिंदगी...

A Tribute To All My Wonderful Nirma Friends

I wrote this poem in December just before the 8th Semester project would seperate me from a lot of our buddies. The poem has been changed slightly, and I probably shared it with some people, but then I thought that if this Blog is titled "Rushin Speaks...", this is something that cannot be removed from the list.
So, this is dedicated to all the WONDERFUL Friends, I got from Nirma. I may or may not have pictures of all of you here, but the wonderful memories are always with me to cherish.

Dear friend, can you lend me an ear,
There is something I want you to hear,
As the graduation day keeps coming near,
I feel I’m leaving back something very dear,
Silently, my heart weeps a tear.

When, from school, I came here, (to Nirma)
I had with me, nothing but fear,
But with you around things soon fell into gear,
Our relation that I once considered mere,
Soon became the thing I considered dear.

The talks that we made day and night,
Made my mind go up and tight,
Though there is no reason to write,
I’ve used my share of may and might,
Was wonderful fun and absolutely no fight...

Lucky am I to have true friends,
Who did not change with the changing trends,
Your were with me on straights and bends,
Solving my mistakes, making the mends,
I hope our journey together never ends....

Some of the wonderful pics of THE NIRMA JOURNEY AND HAPPY MEMORIES...! (Click to enlarge)