Elections 2009 – India Votes Back!!!

Disclaimer: The views presented here are the views of the author alone. Readers are expected to form their opinion. Moreover, if I am a bit biased to some party, it may be because of the fact that the ideology of that party suits mine better. The readers are supposed to approve/reject it on their own responsibility.

The biggest Buzz-word in the Indian sub-continent, barring cricket, terrorism and recession, is The 2009 Elections. So as a human, it is in my blood to speculate and provide my views; hence this post is going to be about what I think are going to be the breath-taking moments of this new election. But before I start writing the post, there is one small disclaimer, which is as above.

There is a lot of buzz in the air and people, at least some people look excited to look forward to exercise the very fundamental right given to people by a democracy, their right-to-vote for the next bunch of representatives for the highest positions of the country. When I see the election season bringing the excitement, I get reminded of a famous saying by Benjamin Franklin, which is, "Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch." Though very correctly said, love them or hate them, the elections are bound to happen every 5 years, or at times sooner.


The Indian Electoral Spending – A Joke to Recession?

As the history of India goes, Indian National Congress (Congress) and Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) are the 2 frontline runners which have the highest chances of getting a majority. Winning the previous poll in 2004, the Indian National Congress formed a weak Government with the alliance of Left Parties. This coalition broke mid-way in 2008, when the Congress wanted to go ahead with the N-deal with U.S. and Left pulled the plug. Yet with a critical trust-vote that went through, the Congress managed to finish its 5 years tenure, much to the surprise of all sooth-sayers.

Before I get into some of the spending details, the previous polls had these numbers.

Congress – 141 Seats
BJP – 137 Seats

This means, that without strong coalitions neither of the two parties can reach the magic figure of 272 seats to get the majority. The funny thing about Indian Elections is that it is one-event which is completely un-affected by the Global Recession. According to the data given by Centre for Media Studies (CMS), the Election will cost the Republic of India almost 100-billion rupees, which is $2 bn. This is only the “official” amount that is allowed or accounted for. The actual spending can be estimated to be at least 4-5 times of the above amount.

For instance, Indian National Congress bought the Copyrights to the Oscar-winning song “Jai Ho”, for what would surely not be a small amount. The BJP meanwhile is lapping up all the Ad-slots on the Prime-time radio with their propaganda. Not only this, following the Techie-way victory of Barack Obama, L. K. Advani has also started a blog, website and news-letters. Further still, these internet media are also being popularized by use of Google Ad-words and other Ad-agencies. This apart, various Regional Parties are also promising different things, from Free electricity to new colour TVs and from almost free food and new state status to reservations even in Private Sector.

Over and above this, the fact that Mayawati has shown ambition of being the Prime-minister and form a Third-Front, has also triggered a lot of other events. Ministers of all the parties are flying around the country trying to form new alliances or strengthening the existing alliances. Rumours of Lok Sabha Party Tickets being sold have made a complete mockery of Democracy and it seems that the politicians only consider the money spent for campaigning as an investment which will reap returns once they come to power.


The Election Schedule

The 15th Lok Sabha election or the general election will be taking place in 5 phases as determined by Election commission of India. The different phases each of the states lies in is according to the picture.
The voting will taking place on following dates:
Phase 1: April 16
Phase 2: April 22-23
Phase 3: April 30
Phase 4: May 7
Phase 5: May 13

The results of the election will be announced on May 16, 2009.


The New Leaders of the New India
There is a very heartening change that has come over in the Indian voter for this new Election. The very fact that campaigns like “No votes to Criminals” and “Jaago Re” are gaining popularity is giving a new hope to the Indian voters. For the first time, companies like Infosys and TCS have taken initiatives like getting Voter ID cards to be made for their employees and are encouraging their employees to vote. This change is going make the politicians see a new class of Indians Voters – the Indians who never voted before.

The other interesting thing to see forward is that though the current fight for leadership is between L. K. Advani (BJP), Manmohan Singh (Congress) and probably Mayawati (3rd Front). The real excitement is how the next leaders in Pipeline are treated and what Portfolios/responsibilities are they given. Congress is keen to bring Rahul Gandhi as its next successor, whereas BJP is silent so far. Yet, I have a strong feeling that the next candidate for BJP after L. K. Advani, will be none other than the current Gujarat Chief Minister, Narendra Modi, who is famous in the world for both, his positive and negative publicity. With industrialists like Anil Ambani and Sunil Mittal openly supporting him for the post and with the success-model of Gujarat as his achievement, he will surely be one leader to keep an eye on.


Gauging the Future Possibilities

1. UPA + Coalition
Indian National Congress winning the next elections looks to be grim, but yet with the rural support they have, there are chances that they can win provided that they hang on to their existing allies and get support from 3rd Front once the elections are over.

2. NDA + Coalition
The chance of a BJP-led Government again looks dicey, but considering the previous Congress tenure, this Government has a realistic chance provided they get support from BSP and other allies, which looks difficult at present.

3. Third Front at the Center
This though looks tough, it has a realistic possibility if the allied parties in NDA and UPA break free from their parent parties with the greed of getting a bigger-share in the completely coalition government. Though not officially announced yet, Mayawati looks to be the front-runner for PM-position from this front. However, we can expect another round of polls if this government comes to power.

All in all, in the end, it will boil down to where the parties like CPM, TDP, AIDMK etc. will go, which will decide the fate of who forms the next Government.


Final Verdict

In these Elections, with the current Recession, unstable Pakistan and rising unemployment, which party wins or loses is kind of immaterial. It is going to be a tough ask for the new Government to tackle these issues effectively.
All in all, the whole Election Post can be summarized in one line which was once spoken by Franklin D. Roosevelt, who said that Freedom from want and freedom from fear – do not just come from deposing a tyrant and handing out ballots; they are only realized once the personal and material security of a people is ensured as well.